Mobility as a Wicked Problem
We all’aim for a sustainable, affordable, inclusive, safe, and resilient mobility system. Yet, we face significant shortages: in personnel, financial resources, materials, energy, and physical space.-When envisioning a better and more sustainable mobility system, we encounter complex dilemmas that inevitably require trade-offs between goals,- says Deborah Nas, coordinator of The Mobilisers and professor of Strategic Design for Technology-Based Innovation. -That-s why I call mobility a wicked problem: attempts to address one aspect almost always uncovers new challenges. Our strategic foresight, illustrated through the four scenarios, helps stakeholders make better-informed decisions about the future.-
The Rector Magnificus of TU Delft, Professor Tim van der Hagen, emphasizes the importance of this endeavour. -The future of mobility depends on the choices we make today. At TU Delft, we have all the academic expertise needed to create a sustainable, equitable, and resilient future. This framework helps us and our partners look beyond immediate challenges to prepare for opportunities and risks. It’s a crucial part of our mission as a university: advancing knowledge and contributing to solving major societal challenges.-
Four Scenarios
Using the Strategic Foresight method, these scenarios are based on two critical dimensions: the level of government intervention and the societal openness towards technological change. Low government intervention promotes market-driven solutions, emphasizing free trade and entrepreneurship. High intervention prioritizes broad societal goals such as sustainability, health, and inclusivity.Along these axes, four possible futures emerge:
In this market-driven scenario, society embraces rapid technological innovation, prioritizing economic growth and convenience. However, the lack of government oversight leads to growing inequality, inefficient use of public space, and environmental challenges.
This scenario highlights strong government intervention and societal enthusiasm for technology. Large public investments enable sustainable, integrated mobility systems and livable urban spaces. This approach fosters broad societal benefits but demands significant public investment and introduces new bureaucratic complexities.
With a focus on community and sustainability, this scenario advocates cautious adoption of proven technologies. Government-led initiatives and behavioral change are central, promoting equality and resilience. However, this comes at the expense of mobility and economic growth.
In this fragmented future, minimal government intervention and societal skepticism towards new technologies dominate. Mobility companies focus on proven technologies and profitable routes, resulting in a disjointed system. The lack of coordination exacerbates inequality, environmental problems, and inefficiency.
Black Swans and Grey Rhinos
The report also examines Black Swan events-unpredictable occurrences with significant impacts-and Grey Rhinos, predictable but often overlooked threats. Addressing these factors enables stakeholders to test policies and identify interventions that provide value under all circumstances.Future Mobility Workshops
The scenarios will be used in TU Delft-s Future Mobility Workshops, bringing together professionals and academics to exchange ideas, explore future challenges, stress test strategies, and identify -no-regretpolicy interventions. The Mobilisers invite public organizations with mobility challenges to get in touch.Over de Mobilisers
To illustrate how different elements of the mobility system could evolve, The Mobilisers present perspectives within their areas of expertise, such as shared urban mobility, autonomous vehicles, active modalities, aviation, and logistics. These perspectives offer illustrative examples of possible futures. Read their insights online.Making Sense of Mobility
The scenarios are a gift to society during our anniversary week, -Making Sense of Mobility-a week dedicated to smart and sustainable mobility.At TU Delft, researchers from all necessary disciplines are working to understand mobility. We develop essential knowledge, innovative tools, smart vehicles or vessels, and digital twins. We contribute to bold new policies and know how to design for uncertainty.
The future depends on the choices we make today. That-s why we invite students, staff, colleagues, policymakers, journalists, peers, and partners during our anniversary week to work together on the mobility of the future. Join one of our events to make the future sustainable, equitable, and resilient.
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